80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

104

105

196

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

149

150

151

152

153

154

155

156

157

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

166

167

167

sayfa 168

Dikkate alınması gereken küçük bir ek nokta var: Doğu'nun elinde kalan son kağıdın papaz olması. Beklenenden daha ciddi derecede bir şüphe duyabilirsiniz. Fakat bu papazı düşürmeye çalışmanız anlamına gelmez.
Hayır. Böyle bir şeyi çok nadiren denemelisiniz. Ve bunun iyi bir sebebi olmalı.
Sebep bu, ve şimdi ve bundan sonra, bu durumu her görmezden gelişimde bunu ödeyeceğim: Genellikle, masadaki atmosferde gerçekleşen bazı değişiklikleri fark etmek çok kolay olsa da, bunu ölçmek oldukça zordur. Değişimin derecesini tahmin etmeye çalışmayın. Unutmayın, eğer Batı'da papaz varsa, ondan yayılan bazı hisler olabilir. Muhtemelen kızı almış olabileceğini düşünüyor olabilir. Doğu sizi, yere düşmeyecek bir papazı düşürmeye çalışmanız için as atmanız konusunda sizi destekliyor olabilir. Doğu'nun sadece papaza sahip olduğu atmosferle bu atmosfer arasındaki farkı söylemek çok daha zordur.
Bu sizin yüzdelere karşı koymayacağınız anamına gelmiyor.
Bu tartışılan durumda, muhtemelen papazı düşürmeye çalışmamalısınız çünkü oyununuz akıl almaz derecede zamana karşı olabilir. Sadece, bu kitabın daha önceki bölümlerinde örnekleri görülen, çok önemli bir sebebiniz varsa yüzdelere karşı saldırmalısınız. 6. hissinize güveneceğiniz zaman, bir eşitlik durumunda hatta neredeyse eşitliği bozacak olan kararın verileceği zamandır. 'Hissiniz' size, 5 kartı kaçırırken ikili bir kızı düşürmeye yeltenmenizi sağlayabilir. Fakat birinin masaya kartları dökmek zorunda kalması durumunda, bir destede 7 kartı kaçırarak bir papazı düşürmek için bu kadar herşeye karşı gelebileceğiniz bir durumu hayal etmek zor.

sayfa 169

Yes. But why does this occur? And what case, (a) or (b), is likely to be easier to guess? Why?
In case (a), if West has the ace he has to decide whether or not to take it, and if he has the queen he has to decide \vhether or not to cover if the jack has been led. It is evident that West will frequently have a problem.
And in (b)? In this case, when the eight or nine is led West will have to decide if he should take his ace-if he has it. Any West who has the queen only will not be concerned with whether or not he ought to play the queen. In (a), West might hope to gain a trick by covering the jack with the queen, but in (b) it is clear that nothing can be gained by inserting the queen. So West will not think about it unless he is a very professional actor. The trick is to play your cards in such a way as to be able to guess correctly what the defenders are thinking about. Look carefully at the next pair of combinations. In the third set of hands, if you lead the eight to the king in (a) and it wins, you can come back and lead the nine. It may look to West that you are going to play the queen if he, West, has the ace and does not play it. It may seem that you are only interested in the location of the ace.
But in (b), West can see clearly that the location of the jack is important. West is more likely to play low with the ace in (b) than (a) on the second round of the suit. If West thinks on the second round of the suit when you lead the nine in (a), he

sayfa 170

probably has the ace. However, if you lead the ten at trick two of the suit in (a), you gave West two possible problems. In light of the above, how do you play to play 4(a), (b), and (c) assuming your contract depends on losing one trick only?
In ali three cases you should lead low toward the dummy. If in 4(a) or 4(b) you lead the jack, then West may have a problem-but you will not know if he was vvondering what to do with the ace or the queen.
One last common Tell available to you which is about as sure a Tell as you will ever get. This is your trump suit:
You led the ace, on which ali followed, and continued with the ten, East producing the remaining small card. Do you finesse or play for the drop? While you are thinking about this, you observe that West has detached or is beginning to detach a card. How does this influence you, if at ali?
If the solution of this Tell is not immediately clear to you, ask yourself how you would play if you were the defender on declarer's left—
(1) With the trump queen. (2) Without the trump queen, i.e., with an original singleton trump.
In case one, would you be pulling out the queen in anticipation of playing it or would you be clutching your cards firmly so as to prevent declarer spotting the queen in your hand?
In case two, having no problem now, might you not, in a moment of weakness, begin to detach some nonessential card from some other suit?
This particular Tell says you should finesse.

sayfa 171

SUMMARY

The first problem you have is to identify what kind of Teli is being made if one occurs. You have to guess if it is real, accidental, or fake. For the most part you should concentrate only on what seem to be real Telis, and ignore the rest. These include the shotgun, which is a card played extremely fast.
Next you have to consider the different kind of problems the defense may have. You must recognize that various problems which appear to be twins or look-alikes may, as far as the defense is concerned, be very different. If possible, try to conceal the problem from the defenders.
The only point to be emphasized is that you should ignore any Teli that you cannot identify as being for real. There are too many accidental hesitations as well as the phony intentional ones to work out ali of them.

You led the ace, on which ali followed, and continued